FX Position Traders

**raygunaraj** · February 24th, 2012, 11:47 PM

the Elliott channel in the 4 hour chart below says it all...

Usd/Jpy - 4H Chart

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preferred Strategy: wait for corrective decline to Buy on a pullback

**raygunaraj** · February 25th, 2012, 04:59 PM

"faith, hope & low interest rates... these are apparently the ingredients that are keeping the Equity Markets in a continuous upward advance"

While Position traders are standing aside waiting to short risks higher, short term speculators are ignoring the Fundamentals & are aggressively & complacently bullish on risks. How long & how far will this stimulated markets rally? or is this the beginning of a completely new trend? Well that is why we have Technical & Fundamental Analysis...

Expect some consolidation, ranging & aimless drifting across the board from now till March 9th.
Heavy Event Risks leading up to that day. From now till then I will be looking through...
Aud/Usd, Eur/Gbp, Eur/Usd, Eur/Chf, Eur/Jpy, Gbp/Usd & Usd/Jpy for actionable trade set-ups.

Currently I am only involved in Eur/Chf long & may look to scale in to this long-term position as we approach the level that I mentioned in my post here on Feb.24th

**raygunaraj** · February 27th, 2012, 12:22 PM

Originally Posted by raygunaraj

Implications are for another push lower towards 1.2040/1.2035 which would complete the (ABC) wave 2 decline from Feb 8th high. From there, look for 3rd Impulse to propel the Eur/Chf up.the levels mentioned above could be a good zone to add longs.look for confirmation with a bounce of RSI from the 40 mark.

...as mentioned above, just added another lot. am gradually building into this very long term position. the upside potential is huge for this pair.

Eur/Chf - 4H

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**raygunaraj** · February 28th, 2012, 12:29 AM

Originally Posted by raygunaraj

the Elliott channel in the 4 hour chart below says it all...

Usd/Jpy - 4H Chart

preferred Strategy: wait for corrective decline to Buy on a pullback

as expected the 5th wave in the 4H chart landed more or less where I believed it would...as long as price action stays below 81.66, we are in a correction downwards...a break of 4H Channel Support shown above as per my post on Feb.24th & a dip of 4H RSI below 50 would confirm that ABC correction could be in progress.

**raygunaraj** · February 28th, 2012, 04:02 PM

Will SNB’s Jordan Update Monetary Policy at His Upcoming Speech tonight? (1.30am Singapore Time) I am sure he will say something...

Currently the Swissie is just following its counterpart as there is nothing to drive it. What SNB's Jordan says in his upcoming speech could be a catalyst for the Eur/Chf. Any mention about buying euros before the pair hits 1.20 or any form of capital control to curb the Swissie's strength could see the pair rising... On the other hand if he just repeats the same threats as what the SNB has been saying since the establishment of the 1.20 floor, the pair could aim for 1.20 to test the SNB's commitment.

whatever the case... be prepared for some action.
Eur/Chf 4H

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take note of the 4H RSI bullish divergence.

**raygunaraj** · February 29th, 2012, 07:28 PM

Technical Update: Aud/Usd final wave up in progress

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61% of retail traders are short the Aud/Usd... Daily RSI is above 60. Momentum alone is enough to carry the Aussie towards July 2011 high. I expect the Aussie to face strong resistance between 1.1235 - 1.1245... where the larger ABC correction would probably begin. (refer to chart).

**raygunaraj** · March 1st, 2012, 12:17 PM

Expect some consolidation, ranging & aimless drifting across the board from now till March 9th.
Heavy Event Risks leading up to that day.

Best to stay on the sidelines till then, if not already in any positions. Am currently fully committed to Eur/Chf long. I will be watching Aussie, Euro & Sterling closely. My preferred strategy is to wait for the levels to play out.

Position Trade Set-Ups (my mid to long term plan)
Aussie - Buy lower after ABC correction (probably mid year)
Euro - Sell higher close to 1.40 / 1.43 (if it gets there)
Sterling - still trying to figure it out (wonder if the Olympics would have any effect on the currency???)

Any thoughts on my plan anyone ?

**raygunaraj** · March 2nd, 2012, 10:54 AM

the markets were boring last night so went to bed early but woke up this morning & saw that big move in Eur/Chf... i wrote in February that... Implications are for another push lower towards 1.2040/1.2035 which would complete the (ABC) wave 2 decline from Feb 8th high. From there, look for 3rd Impulse to propel the Eur/Chf up. ...this played out beautifully as expected.

the Techs in the 4H chart looks beautiful. look at that channel from the bottom (RSI trying to break above 60) bollinger bands are moving away in the opposite direction. all signs of an impending breakout. today being a Friday, can this rally last? short term Resistance comes in around 1.2070 - 1.2075, Support @ 1.2060 - 1.2050. Price is respecting that 4H channel from the bottom. will see what happens into Europe open & update techs later.

Eur/Chf 4H