IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and expertise to forge solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and pr...oviding deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 key business and government customers, including 85 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth. More
JAN
22
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Brexit-exposed sectors in Ireland suffer as Brexit day approaches

'Most exposed' sectors see output expansion weaken at end of2018Divergent trends noted between the most- and least-exposedsectors

Irish firms operating in sectors deemed to be most atrisk1 from Brexit showed signs of stress throughout2018, according to PMI data from IHS Markit.

With ten weeks to go until the UK is due to leave the EU andTheresa May's Brexit deal rejected by the UK parliament,uncertainty among Ireland's most vulnerable firms is likely to beheightened in the near-future.

Divergence with 'least exposed' sectors growssharply

A recovery in output enjoyed by firms most exposed to Brexit in2017 largely failed to continue last year, with the gap inperformance between the 'most exposed' and 'least exposed' sectorsbecoming much larger, especially in late-2018. December saw the PMIsurvey's Output Index for the 'most exposed' sectors run some 7.7points below that for the 'least exposed' sectors, the fourthgreatest divergence seen since the EU referendum. The final quarterof the year consequently saw the average rate of output expansionease notably. Indeed, contractions in output were recorded inOctober and December 2018.

The outperformance of the 'least exposed' sectors compared totheir peers in 'more exposed' industries was also evident withregards to inflows of new business. December saw the PMI New OrdersIndex for the 'most exposed' sectors drop 5.9 index points belowthat for the 'least exposed', a much greater divergence than theaverage of 3.8 index points seen since the start of 2001. A similardivergence was seen with the rates of job creation and businesssentiment.

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JAN
18
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Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 21 January 2019

Flash January PMI data will provide important insights intoeconomic performance and price trends of major economies at thestart of 2019, especially for the US, where official data releasesare subject to delayed publication due to the government shutdown.December PMI surveys rattled financial markets, indicating that2018 ended on a disappointing note for many countries, pushing theglobal PMI down to a 27-month low.

In Asia, the week kicks off with a number of countries reportingGDP figures. Undoubtedly, China's GDP data will be watchedespecially closely for clues of the likelihood of further stimulus.Japan, Korea and Malaysia are also set to decide on monetarypolicy, while trade data from Thailand, Taiwan and Japan couldoffer clues as to the trade-war impact on exports, particularlyelectronics.

Elsewhere, the ECB holds its first monetary policy meeting of2019, with analysts eager to see how the central bank will respondto growing signs of renewed weakness in the eurozone economy.Updated UK labour market data will meanwhile help frame the outlookfor Bank of England interest rate policy.

Our special focus looks at the economic outlook for ASEAN in2019 at a time where supply chains are shifting due to corporateresponses to global trade tensions.

Download the article for a full diary of key economicreleases.

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JAN
18
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Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 21 January 2019

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JAN
17
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Eurozone flash PMI to provide ECB policy guidance at start of 2019

Flash Eurozone PMI will be updated for January after Decembersignalled 0.1% GDP growth rate and waning price pressuresECB policy meeting coincides with PMI release

Next week sees the release of flash Eurozone PMI data on thesame day that the European Central Bank's Governing Council meetsto decide on monetary policy. The policy meeting and data will beeyed for insights into whether the recent deterioration inperformance of the eurozone economy has persisted at the start of2019, and whether the central bank may adjust its policy stance andguidance.

Disappointing data

The ECB ratcheted up its hawkish rhetoric in 2018 after theeconomic data showed a surprisingly strong start to the year, onlyto see the numbers deteriorate as the year proceeded. The worseningeconomic trends failed to prevent the ECB going ahead with aplanned ending of its quantitative easing programme in December,but with the latest PMI survey data indicating the slowest rate ofeurozone business growth for over four years alongside a markedeasing in price pressures, policymakers are at least starting toacknowledge increased downside risks to the economy.

The headline IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI®fell from 52.7 in November to 51.3 in December, its lowest sinceNovember 2014. The output index is consistent with a quarterly GDPgrowth rate of just 0.1% in December alone.

A PMI-based 'price pressures' gauge, an inflation indicatorbased on input costs and supplier delivery times (the latter beingindicative of capacity utilization), meanwhile fell from 60.5 to57.9, its lowest since October 2016.

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JAN
17
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Eurozone flash PMI to provide ECB policy guidance at start of 2019

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JAN
16
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'Gilets jaunes' protests hit output and labour market

December PMI signals hit to GDP after disruption from 'yellowvest' demonstrationsOngoing disruptions delay measures to curb unemploymentPMI employment data on downward trend in Q4

Amid the widespread 'gilets jaunes' demonstrations in France,December PMI data pointed to the first monthly contraction inFrench private sector output for two-and-a-half years. Thecampaign, initially protesting against an increase in fuel taxes,caused disruptions to both the demand and supply-side of theeconomy.

The negative impact was felt across both the manufacturing andservice sectors, with service providers registering their firstfall in business activity since June 2016 and goods producersseeing output decline at the fastest pace for over three-and-a-halfyears. The PMI results now point to quarterly GDP growth ofapproximately 0.2% for the fourth quarter of 2018. However, withgrowth momentum being lost throughout the quarter, the December PMIreadings alone were consistent with the economy contracting.

Employment picture weakens in the fourthquarter

As well as dampening growth at the end of 2018, and potentiallyat the start of 2019, 'gilets jaunes' disruption was in partresponsible for restricted job creation in December. With outputfalling due to the protests, private sector firms increased staffnumbers at the slowest pace for 20 months, according to the latestPMI data. At the sector level, the weak performance was driven by asecond successive contraction in manufacturing employment.Meanwhile, services companies reported their softest rate of hiringsince April 2017.

The results from the final month of 2018 continue the downwardtrend seen since the start of the fourth quarter, and with protestsstill ongoing, it may be the case that this negative momentum willcarry forward into the opening months of 2019.

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JAN
16
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'Gilets jaunes' protests hit output and labour market

December PMI signals hit to GDP after disruption from 'yellowvest' demonstrationsOngoing disruptions delay measures to curb unemploymentPMI employment data on downward trend in Q4

Amid the widespread 'gilets jaunes' demonstrations in France,December PMI data pointed to the first monthly contraction inFrench private sector output for two-and-a-half years. Thecampaign, initially protesting against an increase in fuel taxes,caused disruptions to both the demand and supply-side of theeconomy.

The negative impact was felt across both the manufacturing andservice sectors, with service providers registering their firstfall in business activity since June 2016 and goods producersseeing output decline at the fastest pace for over three-and-a-halfyears. The PMI results now point to quarterly GDP growth ofapproximately 0.2% for the fourth quarter of 2018. However, withgrowth momentum being lost throughout the quarter, the December PMIreadings alone were consistent with the economy contracting.

Employment picture weakens in the fourthquarter

As well as dampening growth at the end of 2018, and potentiallyat the start of 2019, 'gilets jaunes' disruption was in partresponsible for restricted job creation in December. With outputfalling due to the protests, private sector firms increased staffnumbers at the slowest pace for 20 months, according to the latestPMI data. At the sector level, the weak performance was driven by asecond successive contraction in manufacturing employment.Meanwhile, services companies reported their softest rate of hiringsince April 2017.

The results from the final month of 2018 continue the downwardtrend seen since the start of the fourth quarter, and with protestsstill ongoing, it may be the case that this negative momentum willcarry forward into the opening months of 2019.

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JAN
14
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Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 14 January 2019

China credit and FDI dataJapan inflationIndonesia sets monetary policyUK's 'meaningful vote' on Brexit dealSpecial focus on the electronics sector

With recent signs of growth slowing in China, another batch ofeconomic statistics, including lending and foreign investment datawill be scrutinised by market participants. Japan's inflation andindustrial production numbers will also come into focus ahead ofthe Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting later this month.Indonesia is meanwhile set to decide on interest rates.

Other data highlights for Asia include trade data for Indonesiaand Singapore, plus Australia's investment lending and home loansdata.

Elsewhere, the UK Parliament votes on the proposed EU WithdrawalAgreement deal after the initial vote in December was postponed. UKinflation and retail sales will also be keenly watched alongside USretail sales, industrial production and housing data, as well asfresh Eurozone industrial production numbers.

Our special focus looks at the recent slowdown in the globalelectronics sector and the impact on many Asian economies, forwhich the sector has become an important source of economic growthand exports.

Download the article for a full diary of key economicreleases.

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JAN
14
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Week Ahead APAC Economic Preview: Week of 14 January 2019

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JAN
14
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Metals Users PMI points to falling world growth and lower prices in 2019

Broad-based deterioration in operating conditions for firsttime in nearly three years……suggesting global growth is likely to slow in 2019…and metal prices may decline

Global metal-using industries are suffering their steepestdownturn since early-2016, according to December survey data. Theend of 2018 saw a contraction in output across all monitored groupsof metal users, as new orders declined amid worsening tradeconditions. As an indicator of worldwide output, this points to ableak outlook for the first half of 2019.

The IHS Markit Global Metal Users PMITM is acomposite indicator giving an accurate overview of operatingconditions at manufacturers identified as heavy users of aluminium,copper or steel.

As many metal users are producers of primary manufacturinggoods, these indices can give a solid forward-looking indicator ofwider manufacturing output trends in the short term, and followingthis, an indicator of worldwide growth in the medium term.

To illustrate the leading indicator properties of the data, theCopper Users PMI has a correlation of 0.91 with the JPMorgan GlobalManufacturing PMITM when leading by one month, whilealuminium and steel have correlations of 0.83 and 0.80respectively.

Furthermore, all three Metals Users PMIs have correlations of0.75-0.78 when compared with annual worldwide GDP growth with alead of five months. As such, these indices give a strongindication of global business performance over the following twoquarters.

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