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ZEW-Gutachten: Monioring-Report Wirtschaft DIGITAL 2018

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ZEW-Gutachten: DIGITAL Economy Monitoring Report 2018

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GDP up by 0.4% in both euro area and EU28

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.4% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the second quarter of 2018, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2018, GDP had also grown by 0.4% both in the euro area and in the EU28.Original link
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Industrial production down by 0.7% in euro area

In June 2018 compared with May 2018, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.7% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.4% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In May 2018, industrial production rose by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.3% in the EU28.Original link
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Official Japan GDP data corroborate PMI signal of steady Q2 growth

Rebound in GDP adds to survey evidence of economy growing atsteady pacePMI acts are reliable guide to help see through volatile GDPnumbersSurvey hints at slower growth in Q3

Japanese economic growth rebounded in the second quarter,allying fears of a bout of renewed economic malaise that had beenfueled by a drop in GDP at the start of the year. The fresh datacorroborate PMI surveys which had already been correctly indicatingthat the economy was faring well.

Reassuringly, the survey data show that the economy continued togrow at the start of the third quarter, albeit with some signs ofmomentum waning due to a sluggish export performance.

Problems with GDP

Accurately predicting Japanese GDP data is extremely difficult,more so than perhaps for any other major economy. Problems arisenot because it's hard to know how the economy's performing, butbecause the initial estimates of the official data are notoriouslyunreliable, being prone to major revisions after initial estimatesare first published.

For example, annual fourth quarter 2017 GDP growth has beenrevised up from a preliminary reading of 0.5% to 2.0%.

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Information Paper: An Update on the Annual Re-weighting of the Australian CPI and Living Cost Indexes

PREFACE

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has maintained a program of periodic reviews of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Selected Living Cost Indexes (SLCIs) every six years, to ensure that they continue to meet community needs. The ABS conducted the most recent of these reviews in December quarter 2017 (ABS, 2017b).

In 2016, as part of the program to enhance the Australian CPI (ABS, 2015b), the ABS investigated the frequency of the CPI and SLCIs expenditure class (EC) weight updates. A feasibility study was conducted using Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) data from the National Accounts to annually update the CPI EC weights. The findings from this work showed that more frequent weight updates using HFCE data reduces substitution bias in the Australian CPI (ABS, 2016).

Following extensive consultation with key stakeholders, as well as peer review of methods and data sources by Prices and National Accounts experts, the ABS announced stakeholder support for the annual re-weight of the CPI and the intention to implement these new methods and data sources from the December quarter 2018.

The consultation also identified further topics for ABS investigation. These topics included: methods to more frequently re-weight the SLCIs; and providing methodological clarity for the calculation of CPI capital city weights in between the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) years (ABS, 2017a).

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Livestock Products, Australia

Lamb production hits a record high in June 2018 quarterOriginal link
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Aktuell: Chinese Professors Participate in Qualification Programme at ZEW

From 13 to 24 August 2018, professors in the Chinese Master’s programme of International Business are visiting the Centre for European Economic Research to participate in the “MIB Faculty Programme”. The two-week qualification programme is taking place for the second time following last year’s successful launch.Original link
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Press Release: Economic Expectations Improve but Remain in Negative Territory

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded an increase of 11.0 points in August 2018 and now stands at minus 13.7 points. Despite this marked increase, the indicator still remains significantly below its long-term average value of 23.0 points. The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany remains largely unchanged, with the corresponding indicator rising slightly by 0.2 points to a current reading of 72.6 points.Original link
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Week Ahead Asia Pacific Economic Preview: Week of 13 August 2018

China industrial production, retail sales and investmentdataBank Indonesia policy meetingUK labour market update, including employee earningsUS industrial production and retail salesEurozone GDP

The week ahead sees important official data updates to thehealth of the US and Chinese economies at the start of the thirdquarter, as well as UK labour market data and an update to EurozoneGDP. From a policymaking perspective, the spotlight rests inIndonesia, where the central bank meets to set interest rates in aclimate of increasing pressure on emerging market currencies.

This note also includes a special feature this week on China'sbanking sector and the extent to which the recent rise in SMElending poses risks.

Download the article for a full diary of key economicreleases.

Contact for further APAC commentary: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Contact for European and US PMI commentary: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

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