JAN
17
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Eurozone flash PMI to provide ECB policy guidance at start of 2019

Flash Eurozone PMI will be updated for January after Decembersignalled 0.1% GDP growth rate and waning price pressuresECB policy meeting coincides with PMI release

Next week sees the release of flash Eurozone PMI data on thesame day that the European Central Bank's Governing Council meetsto decide on monetary policy. The policy meeting and data will beeyed for insights into whether the recent deterioration inperformance of the eurozone economy has persisted at the start of2019, and whether the central bank may adjust its policy stance andguidance.

Disappointing data

The ECB ratcheted up its hawkish rhetoric in 2018 after theeconomic data showed a surprisingly strong start to the year, onlyto see the numbers deteriorate as the year proceeded. The worseningeconomic trends failed to prevent the ECB going ahead with aplanned ending of its quantitative easing programme in December,but with the latest PMI survey data indicating the slowest rate ofeurozone business growth for over four years alongside a markedeasing in price pressures, policymakers are at least starting toacknowledge increased downside risks to the economy.

The headline IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI®fell from 52.7 in November to 51.3 in December, its lowest sinceNovember 2014. The output index is consistent with a quarterly GDPgrowth rate of just 0.1% in December alone.

A PMI-based 'price pressures' gauge, an inflation indicatorbased on input costs and supplier delivery times (the latter beingindicative of capacity utilization), meanwhile fell from 60.5 to57.9, its lowest since October 2016.

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JAN
17
0

Eurozone flash PMI to provide ECB policy guidance at start of 2019

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JAN
17
0

Aktuell: Volksbank Weinheim Stiftung and ZEW Grant Research Award for the Sixth Time

The Volksbank Weinheim Stiftung and the ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research have granted the research award “Zukunft der Arbeitswelt” for the sixth time. At the New Year’s reception of the Volksbank Weinheim eG, the award was handed to ZEW researcher Dr. Laura Pohlan for the best doctoral thesis and KIT graduate Viktoria Medvedenko for the best master’s thesis.Original link
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JAN
16
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ZEW-Dokumentationen No. 19-01: Dokumentation zur Innovationserhebung 2018

Das Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung erhebt seit 1993 jährlich die Innovationsaktivitäten der deutschen Wirtschaft. Die Erhebungen finden im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Bildung und Forschung statt und sind als ein Panel konzipiert . Die Innovationserhebungen werden in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Fraunhofer Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung sowie dem Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft durchgeführt. Die Innovationserhebungen im Rahmen des MIP sind gleichzeitig der deutsche Beitrag zu den Community Innovation Surveys der Europäischen Kommission.Original link
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JAN
16
0

EU surplus up to over €190 bn in 2017

The European Union (EU) surplus in trade in services, which had fallen between 2013 and 2016, increased to €191.8 bn in 2017. This is the result of EU exports of services to the rest of the world rising by 5%, from €870.5 bn in 2016 to €912.4 bn in 2017, while EU imports decreased by 2%, from €732.3 bn to €720.7 bn.Original link
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JAN
16
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'Gilets jaunes' protests hit output and labour market

December PMI signals hit to GDP after disruption from 'yellowvest' demonstrationsOngoing disruptions delay measures to curb unemploymentPMI employment data on downward trend in Q4

Amid the widespread 'gilets jaunes' demonstrations in France,December PMI data pointed to the first monthly contraction inFrench private sector output for two-and-a-half years. Thecampaign, initially protesting against an increase in fuel taxes,caused disruptions to both the demand and supply-side of theeconomy.

The negative impact was felt across both the manufacturing andservice sectors, with service providers registering their firstfall in business activity since June 2016 and goods producersseeing output decline at the fastest pace for over three-and-a-halfyears. The PMI results now point to quarterly GDP growth ofapproximately 0.2% for the fourth quarter of 2018. However, withgrowth momentum being lost throughout the quarter, the December PMIreadings alone were consistent with the economy contracting.

Employment picture weakens in the fourthquarter

As well as dampening growth at the end of 2018, and potentiallyat the start of 2019, 'gilets jaunes' disruption was in partresponsible for restricted job creation in December. With outputfalling due to the protests, private sector firms increased staffnumbers at the slowest pace for 20 months, according to the latestPMI data. At the sector level, the weak performance was driven by asecond successive contraction in manufacturing employment.Meanwhile, services companies reported their softest rate of hiringsince April 2017.

The results from the final month of 2018 continue the downwardtrend seen since the start of the fourth quarter, and with protestsstill ongoing, it may be the case that this negative momentum willcarry forward into the opening months of 2019.

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JAN
16
0

'Gilets jaunes' protests hit output and labour market

December PMI signals hit to GDP after disruption from 'yellowvest' demonstrationsOngoing disruptions delay measures to curb unemploymentPMI employment data on downward trend in Q4

Amid the widespread 'gilets jaunes' demonstrations in France,December PMI data pointed to the first monthly contraction inFrench private sector output for two-and-a-half years. Thecampaign, initially protesting against an increase in fuel taxes,caused disruptions to both the demand and supply-side of theeconomy.

The negative impact was felt across both the manufacturing andservice sectors, with service providers registering their firstfall in business activity since June 2016 and goods producersseeing output decline at the fastest pace for over three-and-a-halfyears. The PMI results now point to quarterly GDP growth ofapproximately 0.2% for the fourth quarter of 2018. However, withgrowth momentum being lost throughout the quarter, the December PMIreadings alone were consistent with the economy contracting.

Employment picture weakens in the fourthquarter

As well as dampening growth at the end of 2018, and potentiallyat the start of 2019, 'gilets jaunes' disruption was in partresponsible for restricted job creation in December. With outputfalling due to the protests, private sector firms increased staffnumbers at the slowest pace for 20 months, according to the latestPMI data. At the sector level, the weak performance was driven by asecond successive contraction in manufacturing employment.Meanwhile, services companies reported their softest rate of hiringsince April 2017.

The results from the final month of 2018 continue the downwardtrend seen since the start of the fourth quarter, and with protestsstill ongoing, it may be the case that this negative momentum willcarry forward into the opening months of 2019.

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JAN
16
0

Construction Activity: Chain Volume Measures, Australia

Total Construction Work Done updated for September qtrOriginal link
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© absau

JAN
16
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Engineering Construction Activity, Australia

SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

Sep Qtr 18

Jun Qtr 18 to Sep Qtr 18

Sep Qtr 17 to Sep Qtr 18

$m

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JAN
16
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Building Activity, Australia

SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

VALUE OF WORK DONE, CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

Sep qtr 18

Jun qtr 18 to Sep qtr 18

Sep qtr 17 to Sep qtr 18

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