JAN
14
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Metals Users PMI points to falling world growth and lower prices in 2019

Broad-based deterioration in operating conditions for firsttime in nearly three years……suggesting global growth is likely to slow in 2019…and metal prices may decline

Global metal-using industries are suffering their steepestdownturn since early-2016, according to December survey data. Theend of 2018 saw a contraction in output across all monitored groupsof metal users, as new orders declined amid worsening tradeconditions. As an indicator of worldwide output, this points to ableak outlook for the first half of 2019.

The IHS Markit Global Metal Users PMITM is acomposite indicator giving an accurate overview of operatingconditions at manufacturers identified as heavy users of aluminium,copper or steel.

As many metal users are producers of primary manufacturinggoods, these indices can give a solid forward-looking indicator ofwider manufacturing output trends in the short term, and followingthis, an indicator of worldwide growth in the medium term.

To illustrate the leading indicator properties of the data, theCopper Users PMI has a correlation of 0.91 with the JPMorgan GlobalManufacturing PMITM when leading by one month, whilealuminium and steel have correlations of 0.83 and 0.80respectively.

Furthermore, all three Metals Users PMIs have correlations of0.75-0.78 when compared with annual worldwide GDP growth with alead of five months. As such, these indices give a strongindication of global business performance over the following twoquarters.

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JAN
11
0

Business investment rate up to 23.3% in the euro area

In the third quarter of 2018, the business investment rate was 23.3% in the euro area, compared with 23.0% in the previous quarter. The business profit share in the euro area was 40.3% in the third quarter of 2018, compared with 40.6% in the second quarter of 2018.Original link
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JAN
11
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Household saving rate up to 12.3% in the euro area

The household saving rate in the euro area was 12.3% in the third quarter of 2018, compared with 12.1% in the second quarter of 2018. The household investment rate in the euro area was 9.1% in the third quarter of 2018, stable compared with the previous quarter.Original link
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JAN
11
0

Vietnam GDP up strongly again in 2018 as manufacturing outperforms

GDP up 7.1% in 2018, best since 2007Manufacturing sector continues to lead growth as PMI sees bestannual average since survey's inception

"To reap a return in ten years, plant trees. To reap a return in100, cultivate the people." Ho Chi Minh's thoughts on planning forthe future are relevant today in Vietnam, where the economy seemsin a perfect position to defy signs of slowing demand elsewhere andthrive in the global economy.

An increasing openness to foreign investment, a relativelystable economy and a surging manufacturing sector make the countryan attractive location for international firms, an appeal whichappears to have strengthened in recent months given worries abouttrade tensions and instability elsewhere.

Official estimates indicate that Vietnamese GDP rose 7.1% in2018, the best result since 2007 and cementing the country'sposition as one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

Manufacturing output surges

The manufacturing sector continued to be the strongest segmentof the economy in 2018, with output up some 13% from the previousyear.

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JAN
11
0

Vietnam GDP up strongly again in 2018 as manufacturing outperforms

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JAN
11
0

Retail Trade, Australia

Retail turnover rises 0.4 per cent in November (Media Release)Original link
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© absau

JAN
11
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Livestock and Meat, Australia

Lamb production down 10.6% since November 2017Original link
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© absau

JAN
11
0

Information Paper: Forthcoming Changes to Monthly Finance Statistics

New release combines housing and business lending dataOriginal link
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© absau

JAN
11
0

International Merchandise Trade: Confidential Commodities List

Confidentiality changes to various commoditiesOriginal link
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© absau

JAN
11
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Retail Trade, Australia

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