JAN
09
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Building Approvals, Australia

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JAN
09
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Job Vacancies, Australia

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JAN
09
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Aktuell: Workshop by ZEW and SFB 884 Focussing on Public Opinion Formation

On 17 and 18 December 2018, ZEW and the Collaborative Research Center SFB 884 “Political Economy of Reforms” jointly organised the workshop “Understanding Policy Preferences Using Experimental Methods”. The event brought together some 40 international scholars from different fields of empirical social sciences to discuss experimental methods for investigating how political preferences and opinions are formed.Original link
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JAN
08
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ZEW-Gutachten: Länderindex Familienunternehmen, 7. Auflage

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JAN
08
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Microdata: Education and Work (Additional Information)

Education and Work, 2017 data released in the DataLabOriginal link
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JAN
08
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International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia

Australia records trade surplus of $1,925m in NovemberOriginal link
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JAN
08
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Aktuell: ZEW Represented at 2019 ASSA Annual Meeting

The attendance of the ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research at the Annual Meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations in Atlanta proved a great success. The world’s most important conference in economics offered plenty of opportunities for ZEW researchers to engage in scientific discussions and to present their research findings, while also providing new impulses for future research projects.Original link
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JAN
07
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December 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

NMI® at 57.6%Business Activity Index at 59.9%New Orders Index at 62.7%Employment Index at 56.3%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 107th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 57.6 percent, which is 3.1 percentage points lower than the November reading of 60.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 59.9 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the November reading of 65.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 113th consecutive month, at a slower rate in December. The New Orders Index registered 62.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 62.5 percent in November. The Employment Index decreased 2.1 percentage points in December to 56.3 percent from the November reading of 58.4 percent. The Prices Index decreased 6.7 percentage points from the November reading of 64.3 percent to 57.6 percent, indicating that prices increased in December for the 34th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector’s growth rate cooled off in December. Respondents indicate that there still is concern about tariffs, despite the hold on increases by the U.S. and China. Also, comments reflect that capacity constraints have lessened; however, employment-resource challenges remain. Respondents are mostly optimistic about overall business conditions.”

The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in December — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Information; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Construction; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The only industry reporting a decrease in December is Mining.

What respondents are saying“New residential home sales have slowed significantly. Tariff delay has slowed material cost increases, but all indications are that January will bring price increases.” (Construction)“Economy still chugging along, despite the rise in interest rates and relentless political claptrap. Mid-winter [activity] appears to be helping a variety of sectors, including agriculture and construction.” (Finance & Insurance)“Overall, our year-end outlook is positive. We are already receiving converted RFPs to orders for 2019. Based on the uncertainty of the tariffs, we have advised our clients to make purchases early in first quarter 2019, if possible, to save money. There is concern in our industry regarding the full year due to tariffs, unless a deal can be reconciled with China. We expect lower profit margins and reduced sales for 2019 until our suppliers can source product from other countries, which may not be until late [in the year].” (Management of Companies & Support Services)“Business is still on an uptrend. Receiving more inquiries for training going into new year.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)“Steady demand and supply. Finding qualified employees is a challenge.” (Public Administration)“Business is exceeding expectations. 2019 should equate or exceed 2018.” (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)“Business is very good. Strong demand and pipeline.” (Retail Trade)“The end of the year continues to be busy, with high load factor.” (Transportation & Warehousing)“Overall, the industry looks to have a pullback year in demand for 2019. Several factors are contributing to this: stock market retraction, tariffs, trade dispute with China, higher mortgage rates, higher home prices, stagnant wage growth, labor shortages and higher material costs.” (Wholesale Trade)ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*DECEMBER 2018 Non-ManufacturingManufacturingIndexSeries Index DecSeries Index NovPercent Point ChangeDirectionRate of ChangeTrend** (Months)Series Index DecSeries Index NovPercent Point ChangeNMI®/ PMI®57.660.7-3.1GrowingSlower10754.159.3-5.2Business Activity/ Production59.965.2-5.3GrowingSlower11354.360.6-6.3New Orders62.762.5+0.2GrowingFaster9551.162.1-11.0Employment56.358.4-2.1GrowingSlower5856.258.4-2.2Supplier Deliveries51.556.5-5.0SlowingSlower3657.562.5-5.0Inventories51.557.5-6.0GrowingSlower1151.252.9-1.7Prices57.664.3-6.7IncreasingSlower3454.960.7-5.8Backlog of Orders50.555.5-5.0GrowingSlower1250.056.4-6.4New Export Orders59.557.5+2.0GrowingFaster2352.852.2+0.6Imports53.554.5-1.0GrowingSlower1052.753.6-0.9Inventory Sentiment59.060.0-1.0Too HighSlower259N/AN/AN/ACustomers' InventoriesN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A41.741.5+0.2Overall EconomyGrowingSlower112Non-Manufacturing SectorGrowingSlower107Non-Manufacturing ISM®Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.*Number of months moving in current direction.Commodities reported up/down in price and in short supplyCommodities Up in Price

Construction Subcontractors; Copper Products; Electrical Components; Freight (4); Fuel (2)*; Labor (3); Labor — Construction (2); Lettuce; Oil-Based Products; Romaine Lettuce; and Steel Products* (15).

 Commodities Down in Price

Cheese (2); Computers and Peripherals; Diesel; Fuel* (2); Gasoline (2); Lumber Products (2); and Steel Products*.

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JAN
07
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Volume of retail trade up by 0.6% in euro area

In November 2018 compared with October 2018, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 0.6% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.7% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In October, the retail trade volume increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU28.Original link
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JAN
07
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PMI signals positive end to 2018 for Japanese economy, but highlights risks ahead

The Japanese economy continued to demonstrate underlyingresilience at the end of 2018 despite recent natural disasters andglobal trade tensions, according to the December Nikkei PMI.However, the survey brought signs of waning demand amiddeteriorating global trade conditions, which may further delay theachievement of the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target.

Steady growth during fourth quarter…

The latest Nikkei PMI data showed the Japanese economy enjoyingresilient growth at the end of 2018, maintaining the longest periodof continuous expansion since the survey started eleven yearsago.

At 52.0 in December, the Nikkei Composite PMI Output Index(which covers manufacturing and service sectors) indicated a modestrate of improvement in business conditions, which is largelysimilar to recent months.

The latest reading also extended the current upturn to 27months, the longest period of growth in the survey's history,underscoring the resilience of the economy despite headwinds fromglobal trade developments and recent natural disasters.

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