JAN
04
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UK PMI surveys show growth running close to five-year lows at end of 2018

'All-sector' PMI rises, buoyed by Brexit preparations, butgrowth remains close to weakest since referendumEconomy close to stalling with service sector barelygrowingWeaker pound keeps price pressures elevated

A slight upturn in the pace of economic growth signalled by theDecember PMI surveys failed to prevent the economy from sufferingone of its most disappointing expansions since early-2013.Increased preparations for a potentially disruptive 'no deal'Brexit provided a temporary boost to both output and order books,but heightened Brexit uncertainty continued to compound a broadereconomic slowdown.

Economy slowing sharply

Growth of business activity grew at a slightly increased rate inDecember but remained sluggish. At 51.6, the IHS Markit/CIPS'all-sector' PMI rose from 51.0 in November, but that was still thesecond-lowest reading since July 2016.

The meagre expansion seen in December means the economy grewonly modestly in the closing quarter of 2018. With the exception ofthe downturn seen in the immediate aftermath of the 2016referendum, the expansion signalled by the surveys in the fourthquarter was the weakest since the first quarter of 2013, andindicative of the economy growing just 0.1%.

New order inflows grew at the fastest rate for three months, butstill only registered a moderate improvement. New order growth overthe fourth quarter as a whole was consequently the second-weakestfor six years.

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JAN
04
0

UK PMI surveys show growth running close to five-year lows at end of 2018

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JAN
03
0

December 2018 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

PMI® at 54.1%New Orders, Production, and Employment GrowingSupplier Deliveries Slowing at Slower Rate; Backlog UnchangedRaw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers’ Inventories Too LowPrices Increasing at Slower Rate; Exports and Imports Growing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December, and the overall economy grew for the 116th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® .

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The December PMI® registered 54.1 percent, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points from the November reading of 59.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 51.1 percent, a decrease of 11 percentage points from the November reading of 62.1 percent. The Production Index registered 54.3 percent, 6.3-percentage point decrease compared to the November reading of 60.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 56.2 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the November reading of 58.4 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.5 percent, a 5-percentage point decrease from the November reading of 62.5 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.2 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the November reading of 52.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 54.9 percent, a 5.8-percentage point decrease from the November reading of 60.7 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 34th consecutive month.

“Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, but at much lower levels. Demand softened, with the New Orders Index retreating to recent low levels, the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining too low — a positive heading into the first quarter of 2019 — and the Backlog of Orders declining to a zero-expansion level. Consumption continued to strengthen, with production and employment still expanding, but at much lower levels compared to prior periods. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — softened as well, with suppliers improving delivery performance, and inventories and imports declining.

Exports continue to expand, but at low levels consistent with November. Price increases relaxed to levels not seen since June 2017, when the index registered 53 percent. The manufacturing community continues to expand, but at much lower levels and at a sharp decline from November,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 reported growth in December, in the following order: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Primary Metals. The six industries reporting contraction in December — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

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JAN
03
0

ADP National Employment Report - December 2018

ADP Research Institute®ADP National Employment ReportADP Regional Employment ReportADP National Franchise ReportADP Small Business Report

271,000

Change in U.S. nonfarm private sector employment

CHANGE BY BUSINESS SIZE

Small

1-49 Employees

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JAN
03
0

ZEW-Gutachten: Innovationsindikator 2018

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JAN
03
0

Press Release: Bucher-Koenen Joins ZEW as Head of Financial Research Department

Dr. Tabea Bucher-Koenen is the new head of the Research Department “International Finance and Financial Management” at the ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim. Her research focuses particularly on pension schemes, social policy and financial literacy. Tabea Bucher-Koenen looks forward to commencing her work at ZEW: “I am excited about the new challenges at ZEW, and especially about the opportunity to contribute to the institute’s policy advising activities with my research findings.”Original link
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JAN
02
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Global manufacturing PMI at 27-month low as business conditions worsen in one-in-three countries

Global PMI slips to 51.5 in December, lowest since September2016Export orders fall for fourth month in a row; business optimismlowest since at least 2012; hiring fadesPrice pressures easeTen of 30 countries report deteriorating manufacturingconditions

Global manufacturing growth fell to its weakest for over twoyears at the end of 2018 as the number of countries reportingdeteriorating business conditions rose to one-in-three.

Weakened optimism about the year ahead and reduced growth oforders books meanwhile bode ill for output in coming months, andcontributed to the weakest rate of job creation for over twoyears.

Factory gate price inflation meanwhile cooled sharply,reflecting the falling cost of oil and slower demand growth forcommodities.

Manufacturing PMI at 27-month low

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI, compiled by IHS Markit,fell to a 27-month low of 51.5 in December, down from 52.0 inNovember. The survey is indicative of worldwide goods productiongrowing at a modest annual rate of approximately 2%.

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JAN
02
0

UK manufacturing buoyed by Brexit stockpiling

PMI hits six-month high, buoyed by firms preparing forBrexit-related supply disruptionsDespite stockpiling, output index remains indicative ofstagnant fourth quarterWeaker pound keeps pressure on selling prices

UK manufacturing ended 2018 with business activity buoyed bycompanies ramping up their preparations for a disorderlyBrexit.

The headline IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI rose to asix-month high of 54.2 in December, up from 53.6 in November andits highest since last June, boosted by near-record levels of stockbuilding.

The month saw increased numbers of companies citing contingencyplanning for a disorderly Brexit as the main driver of stockbuilding, with companies especially concerned over the supply ofinputs and resulting production bottlenecks.

The rise in inventories of inputs recorded by the survey duringDecember was exceeded only three times since the survey began in1992. The rise in stocks of finished goods was the second-largestin the survey's 27-year history.

'No deal' Brexit stockpiling

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JAN
02
0

Press Release: ZEW Operates Under New Name

From now on ZEW will bear the official name “ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH Mannheim” . The name change has been approved by ZEW’s shareholder and has become effective with its registration in the Commercial Register as of 1 January 2019. The new name will soon be integrated into all parts of the institute’s public image.Original link
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DEC
21
0

Personal Income and Outlays, November 2018

Personal income increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.4 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in November and real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

 2018JulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Percent change from preceding monthPersonal income: Current dollars

0.4

0.4

0.2

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