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COZfx: Canadian dollar hits fresh 4-week highs

COZforex: The Canadian dollar rose to fresh 4 week highs against its broadly weaker US counterpart on Tuesday, boosted by higher prices for oil and robust domestic data.

USD/CAD was down 0.3% to 1.3462 by 09.30 ET, its lowest trough since April 24.

The price of oil, a major Canadian export pushed higher amid hopes that major producers will extend supply cuts for a prolonged period later this week, amid efforts to reduce a global supply glut.

The loonie received an additional boost after data showing that the value of Canadian wholesale trade grew by 0.9% in March, hitting a record high.

The increase was mainly due to increased demand for building materials and supplies, Statistics Canada said.
The greenback was struggling near six-month lows against a currency basket as expectations for fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration faded amid political turmoil in Washington.

Recent weeks have seen a steady stream of revelations surrounding the FBI’s investigation into alleged Russian interference in November’s presidential election and reports that President Donald Trump attempted to interfere with the judicial process.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last at 96.83, not far from Monday’s six-month trough of 96.83.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: British pound reverses its gains in the morning session

COZforex: For the past the session, the GBP rose 1.19% against the USD and closed at 1.2639, after British Prime Minister, Theresa May survived the Brexit related no-confidence vote over her leadership.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 1.2615, with the GBP trading 0.19% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Data showed that in the UK, the RICS house price balance unexpectedly fell to a level of -11.0% in November. In the prior month, the house price balance had registered a revised reading of -10.0%.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2505 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2394; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2699, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2782.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Swiss Franc trading slightly higher this morning

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.46% against the CHF and closed at 0.9927.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 0.9925, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9883 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9842; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9978, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0032.

Moving ahead, traders would await the Swiss National Bank’s interest rate decision, along with Switzerland’s unemployment rate and producer & import prices, all slated to release next week.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Crude oil trading marginally lower, ahead of EIA’s crude oil inventories data

COZforex: For the past trading session, Crude Oil rose 0.81% against the USD and closed at USD52.01 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories rose 3.5 million barrels to 442.7 million barrels in the week ended 23 November.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 51.99, with oil trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: The crude oil is expected to find support at 50.73 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 49.48; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 52.81, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 53.64.

Going ahead, investors will keep a close watch on the weekly crude inventories data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), due later in the day.

Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Loonie extends its gains in the Asian session

COZforex: For the past session (24 hours to 23:00 GMT), the USD declined 0.55% against the CAD and closed at 1.3235.

In the Asian session, (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 1.3222, with the USD trading 0.10% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.3191 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3161; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3281, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3341.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Australia’s unemployment rate remained unchanged in October

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rose 0.18% against the USD and closed at 0.7235.

In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 0.4% or $24.0/MT to $6106.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 0.3% or $6.0/MT to $1931.0/MT.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 0.7273, with the AUD trading 0.53% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data indicated that Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0% in October. Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations recorded a drop to 3.6% in November. In the prior month, the consumer inflation expectations had recorded a level of 4.0%.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.7213 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7154; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7307, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7342.

Amid lack of economic releases in Australia today, traders would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: EU forecasts slowdown in Euro-zone’s economic growth

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR declined 0.57% against the USD and closed at 1.1367, after the European Commission lowered the country’s growth forecast.

The European Commission, in its Autumn forecast, warned that economic growth in the euro area would decelerate over the next two years. As a result, in the near term, economic growth is expected to continue at about the same pace as in the first half of the year, resulting in a growth of 2.1%. Real GDP was projected to grow 1.9% in 2019, which was slower than the 2.0% forecasted earlier.

Data indicated that Germany’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened to €18.4 billion in September, from a trade surplus of €17.2 billion in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged for the nation to post a trade surplus of €20.0 billion.

The US dollar gained ground against a basket of currencies, after the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged and hinted at further rate hike in December. The Fed, in its latest monetary policy meeting, decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, as widely expected. The central bank stated that the economy expanded at a strong pace along with robust employment growth. Moreover, the bank reiterated that it expects gradual increase in interest rates, with further interest rate hike in December. However, the Fed cautioned over the slowdown in business investment growth.

Other data showed that the US seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims dropped to a level of 214.0K in the week ended 03 November 2018, in line with expectation and recording its lowest level in 45 years. In the previous week, initial claims had recorded a revised reading of 215.0K.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1309 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1272; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1415, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1484.

Amid lack of economic releases in the Euro-zone today, traders would look forward to the US producer price index for October and the Michigan consumer sentiment index for November, slated to release later in the day.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. more than a month ago
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COZfx: Japanese Yen trading a tad lower in the Asian session

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD declined 0.25% against the JPY and closed at 112.64.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 112.69, with the USD trading slightly higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: USD/JPY is expected to find support at 112.50 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.31; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.94, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.19.

Moving forward, investors would await the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting minutes along with machine orders and trade balance data, all set to release next week.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.


(COZ forex UK)
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  1. more than a month ago
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COZfx: British Pound trading slightly lower this morning

COZforex: For the past trading session, the GBP rose 0.11% against the USD and closed at 1.2837 on Friday.

In the Asian session (at GMT0400), the pair is trading at 1.2836, with the GBP trading a tad lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: GBP/USD is expected to find support at 1.2795 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2753; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2860, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2883.

Looking forward, investors would closely monitor UK’s net consumer credit for September along with mortgage approvals, set to release in a few hours

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Switzerland’s M3 money supply advanced in September

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD slightly declined against the CHF and closed at 0.9963.

Macroeconomic data showed that Switzerland’s M3 money supply climbed 2.3% on an annual basis in September, following a rise of 2.5% in the preceding month. Additionally, the nation’s total sight deposits advanced to a level of CHF577.9 billion in the week ended 19 October, from CHF577.6 billion in the previous week.

In the Asian session (at GMT0300), the pair is trading at 0.9968, with the USD trading 0.05% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said: USD/CHF is expected to find support at 0.9945 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9923; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9985, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0003.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)
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COZfx: Crude oil trading lower, ahead of EIA’s weekly crude oil stockpiles data

COZforex: For the past trading session, Crude Oil rose 0.73% against the USD and closed at USD72.18 per barrel, amid supply concerns after the American Petroleum Institute reported that US crude oil inventories dropped by 2.1 million barrels to 415.1 million barrels in the week ended 12 October.

In the Asian session (at GMT0300), the pair is trading at 72.03, with oil trading 0.21% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: The crude oil is expected to find support at 71.22 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 70.42; Meanwhile, the pair is expected to find its first resistance at 72.63, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 73.24.

Going ahead, investors will keep a close watch on the weekly crude inventories data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), due later in the day.

Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


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